Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
OA412 wrote:Turkey doesn't exactly have a free press, where journalists are routinely jailed, so I would take anything reported from there with a huge pinch of salt. Meanwhile, Germany's press is far more free, and far more trustworthy than Turkey.
BestWestern wrote:It sounds like anything you disagree with is fake news.
Facts and figures can be manipulated, and are manipulated. Look at China or Russia.
Tkfan wrote:Just two figures to show the performance, which everyone can check easily online:
-Istanbul Stock Exchange index grew from ~77.000 to 110.000 since January
-US $ fell from ~3.90 TLY in January to 3.43TLY yesterday.
Tkfan wrote:The reason I opened this thread is, since my trust in mainstream media dwindled over the years, I cross-check most news, especially regarding Turkey and its economic outlook.
Yesterday were news in Turkish press that Moody's raised its growth forecast from 2.6% to 3.7% in 2017.
To verify this I googled for international sources. All what I found was news about Moody's downgrade of Turkeys rating last year and this spring.
Additionally I stumbled upon an article in a German Magazine from yesterday, saying how bleak Turkeys economy is and that it will explode in Erdogan's face.
I really wonder if this is just sensationalism, Turkey/Erdogan bashing, distraction before elections in Germany or simply stupidity. The readers comments are really scary and frightening. Thankfully it seems its a small minority of Germans.
Articles:
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/moodys ... sCatID=344
(Sorry, only german)
http://m.focus.de/finanzen/news/konjunk ... 37107.html
Tkfan wrote:was it weak in 2016 when Tourist numbers decreased by almost 1/3 and Foreign Capital fled after the failed coup.
In Contrary, it seems they are booming again.
WIederling wrote:The visible details of the current spat between Germany and Turkey appear absurd enough
to indicate that we are not presented with the full picture.
Turkey used to be very keen on linking to/joining the EU.
This was subverted by the "EuroChristian Leitkultur" conservatives ( mostly Germany and some other nations ).
Turkey then turned to other peers ( less savory ones like Saudi Arabia.)
Turkey's primary interest currently is "no Kurdish nation",
No stable ( and strong to oppose) national governments downstream of their dam building projects.
( Like Israel, Spain they have taken hold of most fresh water supply.)
Advised by the US military to shoot down the SU-24 has backfired endlessly.
Erdogan had to Kowtow to the RF to fix the repercussions.
( result: Turkey today is a lot less willing to follow US bidding in escalating the Syrian conflict. )
BobPatterson wrote:Tkfan wrote:Just two figures to show the performance, which everyone can check easily online:
-Istanbul Stock Exchange index grew from ~77.000 to 110.000 since January
-US $ fell from ~3.90 TLY in January to 3.43TLY yesterday.
Are you suggesting that stock markets and currencies are in any way indicators of something rational?
I know nothing about the market in Turkey.
It is to me inconceivable that stock prices in the USA since Mr. Trump was elected have been rational.
Is there any sane reason for the market capitalization of Tesla Motors being greater than that of General Motors?
Has Boeing truly increased in value by more than 50% in one year?
As for the press/media, the world of the word is in deep trouble. Truth is no longer held in high regard.
Shalom
Dutchy wrote:Tkfan wrote:The reason I opened this thread is, since my trust in mainstream media dwindled over the years, I cross-check most news, especially regarding Turkey and its economic outlook.
Yesterday were news in Turkish press that Moody's raised its growth forecast from 2.6% to 3.7% in 2017.
To verify this I googled for international sources. All what I found was news about Moody's downgrade of Turkeys rating last year and this spring.
Additionally I stumbled upon an article in a German Magazine from yesterday, saying how bleak Turkeys economy is and that it will explode in Erdogan's face.
I really wonder if this is just sensationalism, Turkey/Erdogan bashing, distraction before elections in Germany or simply stupidity. The readers comments are really scary and frightening. Thankfully it seems its a small minority of Germans.
Articles:
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/moodys ... sCatID=344
(Sorry, only german)
http://m.focus.de/finanzen/news/konjunk ... 37107.html
Could you please point out where the German article is factually wrong? It mentions the economic growth and it says, I think rightfully so, 3,7% is low, too low, for an upcoming economy like Turkey. Unemployment seems to be a problem, which seems to be over 11%. Car sales are an indicator how an economy is doing, especially purchasing power of the consumer.
I don't subscribe to your assertion that this article is factually wrong and is intended to harm Turkey.
For attracting foreign investments you need a stable government and rule of law, both are questionable in Turkey. Tourism is down and that is one o the drivers for the Turkish economy.
So you are talking about objectively fakenews, that is a rather harsh conclusion which's, in my mind, legs any basis in reality or better, you haven't shown us one bit, so please provide us with evidence of this. Big claims need a large level of proof of backing up such a claim. Furthermore, "fakenews" is consciously
and wantonly doing that, so could you provide us with a motive for such a thing?
Dutchy wrote:Oh ok, it is the EU's fault? Turkey under the Erdogan regime, moved away from European value's, so no they are not keen to join and therefore the EU should stop immediately with sending money towards Ankara to accomplish this. Has nothing to do with Christian Litkultur, it is the attitude of the Turkish regime towards rule of law, democracy in general and freedom of press, religion, etc.
Do you have any evidence that the US advised to shoot down the Su-24? The Russian craft was inside Turkish airspace, so they had a right to shoot it down.
WIederling wrote:Dutchy wrote:Oh ok, it is the EU's fault? Turkey under the Erdogan regime, moved away from European value's, so no they are not keen to join and therefore the EU should stop immediately with sending money towards Ankara to accomplish this. Has nothing to do with Christian Litkultur, it is the attitude of the Turkish regime towards rule of law, democracy in general and freedom of press, religion, etc.
You wear blinders? Turkey was pretty well set up to work on a wide range of issues that hindered the process.
But the "Christian Leitkulturler" had it made pretty clear that Turkey would not be allowed to progress
beyond EU fringe and holidaying dump.
Completely unacceptable for an aspiring nation like Turkey.
The change seen in recent years was more to fit in with their new peers than anything else.
WIederling wrote:Do you have any evidence that the US advised to shoot down the Su-24? The Russian craft was inside Turkish airspace, so they had a right to shoot it down.
US military high brass seem to have been present in the war room were the shoot down was decided on.
Then "having the right" ( questionable ) and acting on that right need not be opportune in the long run.
( Difficult concept, for sure. In retrospect the downsides are obvious.
With a bit more sophistication based premeditation on the consequences this experiment
would not have been necessary. )
Dutchy wrote:It is pretty clear that Erdogan wants an autocratic regime,
Dutchy wrote:.. the Russians didn't do it again.
WIederling wrote:Dutchy wrote:It is pretty clear that Erdogan wants an autocratic regime,
You are using today's observed behaviour to explain turning Turkey away in the past.
You are wagging the dog so to speak.
Moving to a more autocratic setup was the result of the EU turning away Turkey in the past.
New friends, new clothes.
WIederling wrote:no and no, haven't seen the movie, any good?Dutchy wrote:.. the Russians didn't do it again.
They did not need to.
Seen the movie "The 13th Warrior"? remember the "provocation with unexpected outcome" scene?
Dutchy wrote:1. Tourism: All is a matter of what is the baseline which you compare it to. 15 July 2016 was the date of the coup d'etar and 24 November 2015 for the shoot down of the Su-24M.
So both could be true, if you compare July 2016 to July 2017 I believe it is up 22%, If you compare Q1 2016 to Q1 2017 I believe -25%.
As for bookings, what are bookings? Is one booking for 4 persons count as 1 or 4? So again both could be true. Calling it a fraud needs more hard evidence than you provided here.
2. High inflation makes your purchasing power evaporate unless you are compensated for that by an increase in pay and the article mentions that wages lag behind. So there is a real loss in that. Those are numbers provided by the Turkish government.
3. Might be the case, what is your source? Turkey will do well if they managed to keep it below 11% this year, 11,5% is the prognoses.
4. So it stabilized itself for now, if the high inflations continue it can't sustain that level, common sense. And if you look at the long term trend, provided within the article: the trend is negative, with a small rise in February this year. So the timescale you picked isn't that represented I would say.
5. / 6. / 7. Ok, looking forward to your thoughts about it.
May I ask where this is coming from? Are you a German from Turkish descent?
Tkfan wrote:
5.5.6. Economic growth/Credibility/investments
I will answer this later. I have to look for links. If possible no Turkish links.
tommy1808 wrote:Tkfan wrote:was it weak in 2016 when Tourist numbers decreased by almost 1/3 and Foreign Capital fled after the failed coup.
In Contrary, it seems they are booming again.
*seems* being the key word. Tourism did in deed recovered to pre-crisis levels, but tourism revenues only grew by about 10%, so revenue per tourist went down 1.1/1.5 ~27%.
If airline revenue per passenger dropped by 27%, we'd all know they are in big trouble.
Best regards
Thomas
Tkfan wrote:Hard to say what I am. Latest when I got my German ID, I thought that I am German.
The "Multikulti" discussion in the 2000s and raising Islamophopia, later in the 2010s with increasing Turkey/Erdogan bashing people let me feel not so German.
Dutchy wrote:This is a link I found, cold data, 2012 - 2016: http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/turkey
Rapid growth in population.
Thanks for posting the information and the post. I have learned something about Turkey.
WIederling wrote:..
Aesma wrote:Basically Germany offered something that was never on the table, in the same movement that has added many Eastern European countries, leading to the current EU mess.
Countries with a short history of democracy have been successfully integrated in the union : Portugal, Spain, Greece, the DDR. With Eastern Europe it's much more of a mixed bag, and with Turkey, clearly it would take at least 2 generations for the country to be ready.
...Von den 4,45 Milliarden Euro, die für den Zeitraum 2014 bis 2020 für die Türkei zur Verfügung stehen, seien bisher nur 167,3 Millionen Euro ausbezahlt worden, sagte Hahn der Deutschen Presse-Agentur....
Dutchy wrote:The EU is more than just an economic union, it is also a value union build on the premise, no more war. But granted it isn't a political union like the US is, don't know if it ever will be that integrated. As for Turkey joining the union, that is largely up to them, not the EU. With some political will, yes, but not on its current path.
Aesma wrote:I think you're starting to understand that EU adhesion was used by Erdogan to get elected, not because he really intended to deliver it.
Tkfan wrote:Dutchy wrote:The EU is more than just an economic union, it is also a value union build on the premise, no more war. But granted it isn't a political union like the US is, don't know if it ever will be that integrated. As for Turkey joining the union, that is largely up to them, not the EU. With some political will, yes, but not on its current path.
You are really kind to have this nice thoughts.
But in reality neither in the past nor present no EU politician wants Turkey as a full member. And at the moment there are enough problems within the EU.
Kohl, Mitterand, Sarkozy, Merkel all publicly said they are against Turkeys membership.
For this purpose they are inventing again and again new rules to avoid it. Croatia was the last state to join EU by just negotiations. To prevent Turkeys entry all future candidates must be confirmed by referendum in all member states. Guess the possibility of Turkeys membership
Tkfan wrote:I dont even know if they have closed half of the 35 chapters since 2005. Everytime a reason is found to block negotiations by any member..... so far, really little hope
Tkfan wrote:I am afraid if this love-affair continues like this, Turkey will revise or cancel the customs-union with EU.
Tkfan wrote:As for EU's status.... ideally it is a political union to boost economic cooperation to maintain peace, standing united for common values and interest etc.... but in reality its just for own economic benefits for most states or big enterprises (i.e. Lobbies).
PanHAM wrote:With German citizens arrested randomley and for no legal reason whatsoever at Turkish borders, the German government ia short of calling a travel ban on Turkey.
Whoever complains about "Erdogan bashing" must know that he turned a demcracy into an autocratic Regime. How can I, as a German citizen, take someone serious who calls our political leaders "Nazis", who interferes with our domestic politics by issuing voting recommendations to Germans. How can I respect a dictator who takes hostages so that he can possibly Exchange them for Turkish citizens who have come to Germany to seek asylum.
OK, our federal and state governments, mainly in NRW, have made the mistake to let this guy hold political speeches, adressing his followers here. This should have never happpened and hopefully will happen never again.
Erdogan does not respecty anything and anybody outside his Family and hos cronies. The Assumtion that he himself has stages the coup is not far fetched. Why else should he have built all These giant prisons if not to lock up People who know someone who is reported to knpw someone who has ties with the Guelen movement.
Tkfan wrote:Also the refugee-deal is another fraud to Turkey.
Turkey kept so far its promises, EU not
Again European politicians and media lying to public or hiding truth.
http://m.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/flu ... 64502.html
So far 1 out of 6 billion € is paid. And visa-free travel for Turks is history again
Btw Turkish Goverment calculated approximately 27billion € costs since beginning of Syria-crisis.
Other sources estimate 50billion € so far and annual expenses of 20billion €.
http://www.zeit.de/2017/29/eu-tuerkei-a ... ld/seite-3
PanHAM wrote:I have to correct myself. the German Government does of course not issue travel bans. It should read travel "alert". Generally, German citizens can travel where they want and when the want. They will of course get consular assistance should they be arrested. One of the many Problems the world has with the Erdogan Regime is, that they arrest foreign citizens without telling and without alllowing that the victims receive consular assstance. Which is against all international rules and standards
Dutchy wrote:uhhhh, I do not recognize anything of what I have said in this summery. And I think it lags understanding about basic EU rules, geopolitics and ignoring what is happening in Turkey. Furthermore, it is insulting to the EU and Turkey to say that Uncle Sam has a vote in this and even has a final say in it.
So I do not subscribe to this summary, sorry.
Dutchy wrote:.....
And those giant prisons are partly built with EU money, that is the ultimate irony here.
Tkfan wrote:tommy1808 wrote:Tkfan wrote:was it weak in 2016 when Tourist numbers decreased by almost 1/3 and Foreign Capital fled after the failed coup.
In Contrary, it seems they are booming again.
*seems* being the key word. Tourism did in deed recovered to pre-crisis levels, but tourism revenues only grew by about 10%, so revenue per tourist went down 1.1/1.5 ~27%.
If airline revenue per passenger dropped by 27%, we'd all know they are in big trouble.
Best regards
Thomas
Hi Thomas,
What is your source of 1.1/1.5 ~27%??
tommy1808 wrote:Tkfan wrote:tommy1808 wrote:
*seems* being the key word. Tourism did in deed recovered to pre-crisis levels, but tourism revenues only grew by about 10%, so revenue per tourist went down 1.1/1.5 ~27%.
If airline revenue per passenger dropped by 27%, we'd all know they are in big trouble.
Best regards
Thomas
Hi Thomas,
What is your source of 1.1/1.5 ~27%??
https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/tourism-revenues
best regards
Thomas
Tkfan wrote:You calculated with 2Q17 only numbers. I did with 1H17