Here are the estimated load factors for the foreign carriers at DFW for September 2017. Interjet struggles mightily again, barely filling half their available seats for the second month in a row. This month we estimate Interjet at a 49.47% overall load factor, while in August they were at 54.18%. I’d really be curious on their overall yields.

Qatar saw a rare off month, filling just 58.68% of all available seats. October and November have seen them operate 283-seat Airbus A350-900s on the DFW-DOH run… if that had been used in September they would have been at 73.55% loads overall. For the first nine months of the year Qatar’s DFW passenger counts are off 8.3% compared to 2016.

Lufthansa enjoyed a very strong month, with over 94% of all their seats filled. Japan Airlines remains strong and we keep waiting to see if this route finally gets up-gauged to a Boeing 777-300. Etihad, departing DFW in March, was solid at 84.41% but one has to imagine yield is low if they are dropping the route entirely.

http://bit.ly/2zOa6xF

Enjoy !

That might be a glitch for Qatar?? Very odd as they have always been strong with LF at DFW. With Etihad, it's not certain that it is low yields right now causing them to cancel, but they believe that losing codeshare with American Airlines will cause the route to be unsustainable. They are also phasing out the 772LR they use for the long flight.

Maybe Lufthansa can add a MUC flight too! They've been in DFW a very long time and consistently get good LFs without even having a Star Alliance partner in DFW.

Shouldn't October numbers be ready too? Thanks by the way!

mfe777 wrote:

That might be a glitch for Qatar?? Very odd as they have always been strong with LF at DFW. With Etihad, it's not certain that it is low yields right now causing them to cancel, but they believe that losing codeshare with American Airlines will cause the route to be unsustainable. They are also phasing out the 772LR they use for the long flight.

Maybe Lufthansa can add a MUC flight too! They've been in DFW a very long time and consistently get good LFs without even having a Star Alliance partner in DFW.

Shouldn't October numbers be ready too? Thanks by the way!

I don't think Lufthansa will launch MUC-DFW anytime soon. MUC is pretty congested at the moment regarding slots, and there not gonna add DFW without lots of consideration.

Also, Lufthansa launched MUC-IKA but cut it after a while. MUC-GRU was also cut after a while as well. They did launch DEN, MIA, and MEX for example but they seem to be performing much better and will not be going away.

My fingers are crossed JAL upguages the NRT route to a B789.

Is the LH flight a 333 all year?
Also with these numbers do you think after the 744 is retired, will BA go to a 388 or double 789’s or neither?

One might wonder why doesn't LH upgauge their metal to a, let's say, A340-600 or 747-400 since loads are so good

Why would there be such a drastic difference between inbound and outbound passengers? An 8.8% difference. 77225 passengers inbound, 70965 outbound.

QR and EK numbers are quite honestly brutal...And yet EY is the one pulling out of DFW, despite having LF's that are 25 percent higher...truly mind boggling.

piedmontf284000 wrote:

QR and EK numbers are quite honestly brutal...And yet EY is the one pulling out of DFW, despite having LF's that are 25 percent higher...truly mind boggling.

It does seem odd, but we don't know the yields after all, or what, if any, cargo is being shipped.

texdravid wrote:

Is the LH flight a 333 all year?
Also with these numbers do you think after the 744 is retired, will BA go to a 388 or double 789’s or neither?

It's been a mix of 330 and 340 for a while now. If memory serves the 340 seems to come in more in the winter. Not too drastic a change in seat count between the frames that come here in the past.

texdravid wrote:

Also with these numbers do you think after the 744 is retired, will BA go to a 388 or double 789’s or neither?

I think the BA 747s will be around for another 10 years or so. Not sure on 380 but doubtful. AA/BA seem to prefer the 3x or sometimes 4x daily frequency on the route over larger aircraft.

744lover wrote:

One might wonder why doesn't LH upgauge their metal to a, let's say, A340-600 or 747-400 since loads are so good

Yields most likely. Adding more seats doesn't mean the average ticket price remains the same. LH wouldn't want to fly a 4 holer just to carry 75 more low yield passengers,

QF numbers are again strong.
I remember a comment by QF's Alan Joyce recently where he said that the cost of 2x789s was cheaper on a per trip basis than an A380. This makes me think that perhaps QF will go double daily 789s' in the future as opposed to using the A380.

Daily 789 ex SYD
4pw 789 ex MEL
3pw 789 ex BNE

At the long haul configuration of 42J/28W/166Y this would give QF a daily capacity of 84J/56W/332Y which is basically equivalent to the 380s but with no load restrictions and no F (which anecdotally I hear doesn't sell too well anyway) or ~14000 seats each way

Do you think this will happen or will the 380s remain for the forseeable future?
This would likely require another order of 789s to allow them to take over SYD, but with some creative shuffling around of the fleet and the 744's staying longer this could happen sooner rather than later.

Creative shuffling could mean: BNE-LAX gets upgauged to A380; BNE-DFW 3pw, MEL-DFW 4pw, SYD-DFW Daily (which would go through to JFK and be operated by the BNE based aircraft)
Instead of the current MEL-LAX operated by 789s we could see a MEL-BNE-ORD 3pw operated by the 4th aircraft based in MEL....

Cheers

ZK-NBT wrote:

There will be restrictions on the return ex DFW. The A380’s have to go somewhere so personally I can’t see them pulling it off DFW for a while, however it’s certainly possible they could add an additional flight ex MEL/BNE, probably one daily before the other starts.

Will there? DFW-SYD is shorter than LHR-PER and even taking into account strong headwinds, one would assume that a QF 789 could operate in the current 236 seat config ex DFW with full MTOW.
- I don't have the numbers, nor expertise, just comparing another ULH route and anecdotal comments I've seen.

(also I edited my previous post to add in how I could see them changing DFW to all 789); although I agree with you, it's more likely to be a daily frequency ex MEL say if the AA JV gets up.

And actually I take back my comment bout routing the JFK flight through DFW- the current timings would not work; you would have to switch the DFW flight to an AM departure and then likely put the SYD-LAX departure back to 1pm (which, now that I think of it, might actually work better for west coast connections and LAX O/D traffic...)

The A380 is perhaps too big for BNE-LAX anyway and the associated crew swaps might make this too complex;
We're more likely to see
A380s/747s all based in SYD (with the odd 380 rotating through MEL to LAX/SIN/HKG)
789s/330s based in MEL/BNE and long haul flying dominated by these planes.

BNE would be daily 789 to LAX-JFK, 3pw to ORD (rumoured) and perhaps 3pw initially to DFW or another destination

744lover wrote:

One might wonder why doesn't LH upgauge their metal to a, let's say, A340-600 or 747-400 since loads are so good

They did at one time use an A340-600 on the route.

qantas747 wrote:

QF numbers are again strong.
I remember a comment by QF's Alan Joyce recently where he said that the cost of 2x789s was cheaper on a per trip basis than an A380. This makes me think that perhaps QF will go double daily 789s' in the future as opposed to using the A380.

Daily 789 ex SYD
4pw 789 ex MEL
3pw 789 ex BNE

At the long haul configuration of 42J/28W/166Y this would give QF a daily capacity of 84J/56W/332Y which is basically equivalent to the 380s but with no load restrictions and no F (which anecdotally I hear doesn't sell too well anyway) or ~14000 seats each way

Do you think this will happen or will the 380s remain for the forseeable future?

I can see DFW losing the A380 and going daily 787 DFW-SYD and a second one DFW-BNE or DFW-MEL. Maybe BNE/MEL mix during the week? Time will tell.

freakyrat wrote:

744lover wrote:

One might wonder why doesn't LH upgauge their metal to a, let's say, A340-600 or 747-400 since loads are so good

They did at one time use an A340-600 on the route.

When did this occur? Been a DFW local for a while, but never heard of this.

Independence76 wrote:

freakyrat wrote:

744lover wrote:

One might wonder why doesn't LH upgauge their metal to a, let's say, A340-600 or 747-400 since loads are so good

They did at one time use an A340-600 on the route.

p

When did this occur? Been a DFW local for a while, but never heard of this.

I lived in Dallas for 13 years and I never heard of LH using a 6 FRA/DFW.

gdg9 wrote:

Here are the estimated load factors for the foreign carriers at DFW for September 2017. Interjet struggles mightily again, barely filling half their available seats for the second month in a row. This month we estimate Interjet at a 49.47% overall load factor, while in August they were at 54.18%. I’d really be curious on their overall yields.

Qatar saw a rare off month, filling just 58.68% of all available seats. October and November have seen them operate 283-seat Airbus A350-900s on the DFW-DOH run… if that had been used in September they would have been at 73.55% loads overall. For the first nine months of the year Qatar’s DFW passenger counts are off 8.3% compared to 2016.

Lufthansa enjoyed a very strong month, with over 94% of all their seats filled. Japan Airlines remains strong and we keep waiting to see if this route finally gets up-gauged to a Boeing 777-300. Etihad, departing DFW in March, was solid at 84.41% but one has to imagine yield is low if they are dropping the route entirely.

http://bit.ly/2zOa6xF

Enjoy !

JAL doesn't have many 777-300ER, 17 I believe, streched thin already flying to Europe, JFK, ORd, LAX and SFO. Unlikely one will fly to DFW.

dfwjim1 wrote:

Independence76 wrote:

freakyrat wrote:

They did at one time use an A340-600 on the route.

p

When did this occur? Been a DFW local for a while, but never heard of this.

I lived in Dallas for 13 years and I never heard of LH using a 6 FRA/DFW.

LH has down-gauged DFW since the advent of ME3 flights to DFW. It used to be 747-400 to 340 and now to 330.

NichCage wrote:

mfe777 wrote:

Maybe Lufthansa can add a MUC flight too! They've been in DFW a very long time and consistently get good LFs without even having a Star Alliance partner in DFW.

I don't think Lufthansa will launch MUC-DFW anytime soon. MUC is pretty congested at the moment regarding slots, and there not gonna add DFW without lots of consideration.

Also, Lufthansa launched MUC-IKA but cut it after a while. MUC-GRU was also cut after a while as well. They did launch DEN, MIA, and MEX for example but they seem to be performing much better and will not be going away.

Would be good to have a MUC from DFW. Didnt realize that MUC was congested; folks around the airport had been happily blocking the 3rd runway all along. Perhaps, now there is justification to complete that!

vadodara wrote:

dfwjim1 wrote:

Independence76 wrote:

p

When did this occur? Been a DFW local for a while, but never heard of this.

I lived in Dallas for 13 years and I never heard of LH using a 6 FRA/DFW.

LH has down-gauged DFW since the advent of ME3 flights to DFW. It used to be 747-400 to 340 and now to 330.

This is not true. LH used 742s to DFW before the 340s came online, and I believe flew a FRA-DFW-MEX/IAH(?)-DFW-FRA rotation, which ended in the early 90s once the 342s and 3s were delivered, which is a solid 13-15 years before EK showed up. The only time since the early/mid 90s I recall LH ever scheduling anything aside from a 333 or 342/3 was a 744 for probably two weeks in 2005 as a scheduled equipment sub due to an issue/maintenence/reconfiguration with the airbus fleet. There are pics either here, or on another website. I can't speak for any one-off equipment subs--perhaps a 346 has shown up once or twice over the years--but there is no publicly known cause-effect relationship between LH equipment change and ME3 presence.

AV load factors seem quite good. Who said TACA (now as AV) would stay in DFW in-spite of AA flights to Central America.
Now someone wonders why CM hasn't studied enough PTY-DFW at least 4 days per week as AA DFW-PTY is one of AA most erratically seasonally operated routes.

ZK-NBT wrote:

qantas747 wrote:

QF numbers are again strong.
I remember a comment by QF's Alan Joyce recently where he said that the cost of 2x789s was cheaper on a per trip basis than an A380. This makes me think that perhaps QF will go doule daily 789s' in the future as opposed to using the A380.

Daily 789 ex SYD
4pw 789 ex MEL
3pw 789 ex BNE

At the long haul configuration of 42J/28W/166Y this would give QF a daily capacity of 84J/56Y/332Y which is basically equivalent to the 380s but with no load restrictions and no F (which anecdotally I hear doesnt sell too well anyway) or 14000 seats each way

Do you think this will happen or will the 380s remain for the forseeable future?

Cheers

There will be restrictions on the return ex DFW. The A380’s have to go somewhere so personally I can’t see them pulling it off DFW for a while, however it’s certainly possible they could add an additional flight ex MEL/BNE, probably one daily before the other starts.

Minor ones maybe. Looking at the evidence, it would be a real winner and be able to carry some cargo as well.

The flight from DFW-SYD averages between 16-17 hours.

The flight on UA from SFO-SIN averages about 17 hours. It's been documented that on MOST days, United is able to take a full passenger load, plus a little cargo and oftentimes go out just below MTOW. With this evidence, it's likely QF could take a full passenger load and a bit of cargo a majority of days from DFW to SYD.

The 787 has some real legs to it. Singapore Airlines is also flying the SFO-SIN route with the 350. I'm unable to confirm how much, if any cargo it can take compared to the 787 on this route, but nonetheless, strikes me as remarkable as to what these twin engined planes are capable of.

piedmontf284000 wrote:

QR and EK numbers are quite honestly brutal...And yet EY is the one pulling out of DFW, despite having LF's that are 25 percent higher...truly mind boggling.

EY is pulling out of DFW due to the end of the partnership with AA. It doesn't make sense to keep DFW for them without the feed of AA in Dallas.

gdg9 wrote:

I think the BA 747s will be around for another 10 years or so. Not sure on 380 but doubtful. AA/BA seem to prefer the 3x or sometimes 4x daily frequency on the route over larger aircraft.

As per a public announcement made by IAG at the beginning of the month, the last 744 will leave the BA fleet during 2024. Far too early to know whether DFW will lose 744 service early or late in the process, but 744 withdrawals will start again next year and some will go each year, with just 12 left in service by 2022, and none at all by the end of February 2024. The longest-lasting planes will be the 14F/86J/30W/145Y variants.
Replacements are mostly A350-1000 and 787-10, there's another thread running discussing possible A388 second-hand acquisitions.

Independence76 wrote:

freakyrat wrote:

744lover wrote:

One might wonder why doesn't LH upgauge their metal to a, let's say, A340-600 or 747-400 since loads are so good

They did at one time use an A340-600 on the route.

When did this occur? Been a DFW local for a while, but never heard of this.

LH has never put an A346 on DFW-FRA. Now the A346 that went to IAH has diverted up a few times, but that's it.

vadodara wrote:

LH has down-gauged DFW since the advent of ME3 flights to DFW. It used to be 747-400 to 340 and now to 330.

This is also inaccurate. Yes back in the 80s there was a 742, but LH has also never had scheduled 747-400 on DFW-FRA. It has been A340 and A330 for the past 15-20 years.

A 789 could make SYD, but there is no way a 787 is flying DFW-MEL without weight restrictions. I personally don’t think that QF will take the A380 off the route, but if they do I see BNE daily and nothing to MEL as the only viable option as BNE is short enough that it would never be weight restricted and could carry some decent cargo volume.

jfk777 wrote:

gdg9 wrote:

Here are the estimated load factors for the foreign carriers at DFW for September 2017. Interjet struggles mightily again, barely filling half their available seats for the second month in a row. This month we estimate Interjet at a 49.47% overall load factor, while in August they were at 54.18%. I’d really be curious on their overall yields.

Qatar saw a rare off month, filling just 58.68% of all available seats. October and November have seen them operate 283-seat Airbus A350-900s on the DFW-DOH run… if that had been used in September they would have been at 73.55% loads overall. For the first nine months of the year Qatar’s DFW passenger counts are off 8.3% compared to 2016.

Lufthansa enjoyed a very strong month, with over 94% of all their seats filled. Japan Airlines remains strong and we keep waiting to see if this route finally gets up-gauged to a Boeing 777-300. Etihad, departing DFW in March, was solid at 84.41% but one has to imagine yield is low if they are dropping the route entirely.

http://bit.ly/2zOa6xF

Enjoy !

Unfortunately, IAJ had to pull out its SSJ's flying from Mexico City to the US and Central America due to their slot limitation issue, those same apalling load factors would mean a very good occupancy on their 93 seat Sukhois.